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Les dates !!!! J'avais remarqué le 80 years. Et je calcule depuis fort longtemps avec les Fibo séquences une cible 2020.
J'ai revisé $OEX et macible de 200-250 avec un wxy voire z) concorde.
N.B. Ces recommandations s'appliquent aux $USA durant la crise hivernale.
Observez les commentaires: pas de paniques.... pas de fin du monde .... Un cycle que nous devons traverser. Un autre cycle PRINTANIER suivra(les fleurs repousseront).
The Most Powerful Cycle of all: The 80-year New Economy Cycle
The 80-year New Economy cycle has four seasons:
• Spring: The Maturity BOOM
• Summer: The Inflationary Bust
• Fall: The Growth BOOM
• Winter: The Deflationary or Shakeout Bust
Since the early ’40s, we have experienced three of these new “economic seasons.” During the spring of
1940 to 1965, stocks and the economy surged upward. They peaked around the mid-’60s and then
deflated during the summer of ’65 to ’80.
Once they reached bottom, they turned back up and investors enjoyed a massive fall season-type boom
between 1980 and 2007.
Now, stocks and the economy are heading back down to near early-spring levels. They will only begin
to move back up again around 2020, when the New Economy spring is due again.
These seasons have occurred time and again since economies began and stocks joined
What to Expect During This Winter Season
As this winter season unfolds between now and 2023, here are some of the things you can expect:
• Unemployment will move higher again, to roughly 15% nationwide. It could go as high as 25%
when you include long-term unemployed in the numbers.
• Housing prices will fall an additional 30%, despite the biggest stimulus plan in history and the
lowest mortgage rates in 40 years.
• Personal bankruptcies and property foreclosures will soar as much as 30%. Consumers are
simply saddled with too much debt — $42 trillion or $140,000 for every man, woman and
child in America — for there to be any other outcome. Falling income will only make matters
worse.
• State and municipal governments will be forced into default, especially at the city and country
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level. Their budgets are already in crisis and the Federal Reserve is running out of money with
which to cushion these institutions.
• The Federal deficit will balloon from $1.3 trillion to as much as $3 trillion because of huge revenue
shortages.
• The global credit crisis – phase II – will continue to spread around the globe like a contagious
virus. Greece is already down. Spain will be next.
• A second banking crisis will out, despite the lessons “learned” in 2008. Mortgage companies have
resumed offering low interest, no principal “teaser” loans. Investment banks have begun taking unnecessary
risks again. And this time, there’ll be no money for a bailout.
All of this will send the Dow and other indexes tumbling as much as 70%. In fact, we expect the Dow
to plunge back down to 3,300 by late 2014.
To survive, you must implement the right strategy for this season.
This Shakeout Season, which started in 2007, is one of deflation and depression. The businesses that
barely survived the crash in the early 2000s — most of them in the growth sector — will go under
now.
Only the fittest will survive to see the next season. They will become the next Fortune 500 leaders.
Asset sectors that bubbled during the summer season will experience a massive correction — like real
estate and credit markets — and then they will under-perform for most of the next 13 to 14 years.
Expect to see three stages during this winter shakeout. We saw a great crash as the bubbles burst in
2007. The next stage is a recovery and bear market rally. You’ll see this between 2012 and 2014. During
the last stage, there’s a final recession and slowdown. This will run from 2014 to 2020
Your Investment Strategy for this Shakeout Season
Step #1: Allocate a percentage of your portfolio to 20-year corporate bonds when yields go to extreme
highs as fear grips the markets.
Step #2: Look to invest in Asian stocks focused on India, South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam. Also get
U.S. multinational, technology, and health care stocks. However, you must time your entry into these
markets carefully. We will alert paid subscribers in our monthly Boom & Bust when the time is right to
get into these markets.
Step #3: Sell stock allocations and reallocate toward T-bills or money markets and bonds.
Step #4: Look to add long-term municipal bonds to your portfolio. Do this when yields seem to be
peaking. Again, we will tell paid subscribers when yields start to peak.
During the Recovery and Bear Market Rally (2012 — 2015)…
Make medium-term allocations in stocks and long-term bonds.
Focus on Asian stocks and invest in U.S. multinationals, technology and professional services.
Buy Treasury or municipal bonds.
Invest in real estate, particularly apartments and starter homes for Echo Boomers and vacation or retirement
homes for aging Baby Boomers.
During the Final Recession and Slowdown
For the final leg of this shakedown — between 2017 and 2022 — change your portfolio allocations
again.
First, sell stocks in all sectors.
Convert back into long-term bonds and T-bills or money markets.
Then selectively buy leading sectors of stocks like health care, financials, and technology.
And avoid investing in East Asia, namely China, Japan, and South Korea. These markets will correct
into the early 2020s.
The value of seeing the economic cycles ahead extends beyond your investment plans. You can also use
this knowledge to better position yourself financially for each season.
Your Financial Strategies for the Shakeout Season
Lower returns and higher risks will characterize this shakeout winter season. It will also reduce the cost
of living and the future costs of real estate and assets.
Here’s what to do with real estate…
• If you want to retire and buy a house in Southern Florida, the Caribbean, Arizona, Idaho, Vermont
or British Columbia, wait until 2015 — at least.
• If you’re financing a home between 2011 and 2015, lock in at a low 30-year fixed rate. Look to
benefit from falling short-term rates in the final slowdown from around mid-2017 into 2023.
Here’s what to do with cars…
• If you want to buy a car this year, don’t. Rather lease it for the next two years. Buying now will
only result in significant depreciation. Instead, let the bank take the risk of falling car prices!
• The best time to buy a car is in mid-2013. The economy will be weakest then and you’ll get a low
interest rate.Here’s how to maximize your retirement income and the assets you pass on to your children…
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• Maximize your 401K and matching contributions because surviving this winter shakeout is about
accumulation.
• Buy variable annuities and variable universal life policies. These are important tools for deferring
taxes during your earning years, minimizing taxes during your retirement years, passing down assets
to your children and offering some protection against downside risk.
• Implement strategies to defer earned and unearned income, use Roth IRAs where possible, skew
investments toward tax-free items such as municipal bonds and minimize your real estate footprint
to avoid property tax.
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